Phillies, A's, Smoke, Mirrors and Bochy

Welcome to the 8th Czar’s blog of 2016.

We are entering the time of year when baseball is pure and is the only game in town. Hockey and Basketball are past (we have to move past the pain) and we are heading into July.  The All-Star game is around the corner and it is time to focus on the hard work - the division races - before we reach September and focus on the fact that this is an even year.

THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

The Record – the Good

After beating the Pirates 7-6 in a come from behind victory tonight in Pittsburgh (that’s 24 one run games this year already, and the G-Men are 17 and 7 in them), I truly believe that anything is possible. Right now the Giants are 46 and 27, six games up on the Dodgers and kicking ass in the NL West. If they can keep up this pace the Orange and Black will have 99 wins for the year.

The Pitching Staff – The Bad

The bad as in bad-ass.

The starters are the reason we are where we are. Bumgarner (1.85 ERA, 8 W’s) and Cueto (2.06 ERA, 11 W’s) are both having Cy Young type years. Samardzija (3.59 ERA, 8 W’s) while he blew it today in the 3rd (and was saved by Derek Law) has looked like a legitimate 3rd starter on a top notch rotation. The three top starters have 27 wins between them, The back end of the rotation (Peavy, and now Suarez) are serviceable and have been keeping the Giants in games until the bullpen comes in to save them. Cain came back up and then went down again. The jury is out (he did have two good starts) but it’s looking worse and worse for the horse.

The bull-pen is where the gems are at. Even with Casilla (he of the frustration and the blown saves) the bullpen has produced very well.  Kontos, Law and Gearrin have been lights out, Strickland has looked good (and bad – he has to stop with that 98 mph “straight as a string” heater) and Lopez (sorry to say because he may be the coolest looking guy in baseball) is starting to show his age.

Regardless, the Giants have the 5th best pitching staff in MLB with a 3.41 ERA. The pitchers are reason number one for the win-loss record.

The Injury list – The Ugly

The fact that the G-Men are playing at the level they are with the injury list growing like it is a testament to the GM and his staff being able to find players that fit into the Giants system stocked in the minor leagues and ready to come up.

Pence, after surgery on June 9th is probably out until the end of July with a torn tendon, Duffy went down yesterday with an Achilles tendon – those take a while to heal. Tomlinson has a left thumb strain and has been out since June 10th. Romo has been on the 60 day DL and is now starting rehab assignments.  He might be back next week. Cain is out again with no return in sight that I can see.

The major loss is Pence. He started agility drills today so let’s see what happens with him.

The season is long and the Giants are not a young team as those things go so more injuries can be expected (they are being very careful with Span and Pagan I expect).  That is why the recent good performances from Pena and Gillespie (replacing Duffy) as well as Parker and Williamson (replacing Pence) are so inspiring.

The rumor mill has Christian Arroyo and/or Austin Slater (a hot shot hitter from Stanford) available but the odds against them being called up are long because the Club is loath to lose a year to free agency by an early call-up unless they absolutely have to,  I recall that Crawford and Belt were held in the minors several years ago under similar circumstances (the 2011 injury to Buster Posey).

Managing the injury list has been a significant accomplishment and a major reason for the great record.  Stayed tuned because it’s only going to get harder from here on.

The hitting, fielding and the Coaching staff

This is where the mystery begins. The Giants are 12th in MLB in hitting (solidly middle of the pack with 4.45 runs a game), and 7th in Team defense (at ,987) but their hitting and fielding has been timely.  It seems like whenever a big hit is needed (Pagan’s Grand Slam?) or a defensive play is needed (the Brandon’s, or Buster’s and Casilla’s strike-them-out, throw-them-out, to end the game tonight) the G-Men get it done. That says something about character and making sure that the right player is in the right place at the right time prepared to make the right play.

Character is the other number one reason we are 6 games up on the team from Chavez Ravine; that and Bochy and Rags. There is absolutely no better managers and coaches in baseball. Yes Joel Maddon is doing a good job with the Cubs but the Giants still took 2 out of 3 from them.

The schedule

This has been interesting. Early on when they were full strength the G-Man opened up a great lead on the NL West and had a lot of tough games in a row.  Now they are getting a rest between games and beating up on the Atlanta Braves, Tampa Rays and Milwaukee Brewers of this world. July, however, brings back the NL West (the Snakes, Rockies and Padres) as well as the Nationals.  July will be a test.

The Upcoming Games

The Phillies and the A’s are in town for a very short 5 game series. 

The Phillies are not having a good year. They are 30 and 43, and 13 games back of the Nationals in the NL East. They are hurting all around. Ryan Howard is batting .143. They are last in MLB in hitting, and in the bottom 5 in pitching and fielding.  Regardless, they are a proud major league team from a proud city and they historically play well at AT&T. This is just the kind of team to be afraid of because a let-down could happen very easily.

The same thing with the A’s, who are in last place in the AL West (17 games back of Texas) and who will be coming across the bay with their rabid fans out for blood after losing three police chiefs in 9 days. The A’s series is 2 at AT&T and 2 at OCO, so you can also go across the bay and see who Bochy DH’s (probably Buster is my guess).

These are games the Giants should win. Hopefully Bochy won’t let them slack off and we can go into the series the week after against the Snakes rested and with a larger lead. The Dodgers will be playing the Pirates and the Brewers and they start July against the Rockies.

Remember that the Czar’s ticket deal includes whoever getting the tickets obtaining the BobbleHead or other goodie available that night for the Czar’s collection.  There are two in the upcoming series.

May the force, and seven innings from the starters, be with you always.

That’s it!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar

Red Sox, Dodger's and Brewers

Welcome to the 7th Czar’s blog of 2016.

Even though the Warriors are in the NBA Finals after an epic comeback in the Conference Championships (shades of 2012 and watching Steph Curry channel Marco Scutaro – without the rain – after 5 elimination games), and even though the Sharks are in the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time ever, we can never ignore or forget our real true love – The Giants!

First Place with the Second Best Record in Baseball – How are they doing it?

In the last blog I gave the G-Men at B+/A- when they were only 2 games up in the NL West.  Well, they were clearly stung by the grade because since then the boys in Orange and Black have been on a tear that looks like a 4th quarter Warriors scoring run and are 4.5 games in front of the division, and 12 games over .500.  OK, A+.

Only the Cubs have a better record in baseball, and the G-Men took the last series from the Cubs 2 to 1.

The streak over the last month has been beautiful, and the reason is balance and smart hardnosed baseball. 

The pitching isstrong (5th in MLB with a 2.51 ERA) and has been the main reason for the streak.  The starters are going deep and the bullpen (with its weaknesses and the loss of Romo) as a result isn’t tested night after night. However we could do with a little less drama from Casilla – blowing a save is one thing but getting pissed at his fielders, or his manager, and showing it, is a ticket to Brian Wilson land.

The defense is 2nd in MLB with a .989 fielding percentage. On that note, can you believe that we get to watch Brandon Crawford every day?  The man is a genius with the glove and he has an arm like a cannon. His infield mates Panik, Duffy, Belt and Posey may be one of the best infields to ever play the game. Right now they get my vote. Defense wins games.

While the hitting (without power mind you) is middle of the pack (14th in MLB, .256 BA), the G-Men have won more one run games than any team in either league.  That shows grit and doing a lot of little things right. The coaching staff (especially Bochy but don’t forget Rags and Wotus) is doing a tremendous job of managing games.  No false moves, always a plan and never panic. We are watching history in every Bochy managed game.

Perhaps best of all is the fact that the streak has been built on victories over the NL West.  That bodes well for September when the division lead will be on the line. Right now it looks like the Dodgers are the real opposition, although their hitting has been pretty pathetic so far (team BA of .235), but maybe not much longer as Cory Seager is getting hot. 

The upcoming series against the Dodgers will be really critical in solidifying the Giants early jump on the NL West.  One interesting note about the Dodgers is that they just released Carl Crawford on waivers and are eating his $20 million contract. See below about injuries.  I suspect that a lot of teams will be looking at a free-agent left fielder with his credentials whose salary is already paid.

Doom and Gloom over injuries? Maybe yes, maybe no

Right now most of the outfield is on the DL.  Pence is out at least 8 weeks with a torn tendon that needs surgery.  He is currently the team leader in average (.298) and RBI’s (36) and second in dingers (7) behind Buster.  His production will be seriously missed. Pagan is also out and but is due back in about a week. He has on-going hammie issues also, and a history of getting hurt when needed the most (although this is a contract year).  That leaves Span (with an injury history himself), Blanco (who gets worn down from regular duty it seems) and the new guys from AAA (Parker and Williamson), who are both batting below the Mendoza line.  That’s outfield trouble.

There is a lot of speculation that the Giants are looking for a trade. They might take a look at Carl Crawford (why not, in his prime he was a hell of a player) but the rumors are that they are looking for something more stable and long term.  Names that have been mentioned are John Jay from the Padres, Jay Bruce from the Reds and Ryan Braun from the Brewers.  Each has issues but could be available considering how far back in the standings their respective teams are; I’ve even heard (shudder) Carlos Beltran mentioned because the Yankees are tanking. 

Personally I would put Kelby Tomlinson in left field and promote another back-up infielder from the minors until Adrianza is back off the 60-day DL at the end of June (Is Christian Arroyo ready?)

The pitching side of the equation is a little better (not much mind you) from an injury perspective. Matt Cain finally finds hisgroove and then he goes on the DL with a hamstring sprain. We will see Peavy tonight in St. Louis.  This is a test for him. The biggest loss is Sergio Romo, who is desperately needed to stabilize the bullpen in the late innings.  However who am I to argue with the success that Rags has had with turning around Peavy (at least in the last two starts), letting Cueto be Cueto (isn’t he a hoot!), and getting the most out of Samardjiza (although the 4 HR’s he gave up yesterday in 9 batters to the Cardinals was not very much fun to watch).

Suarez looks like a keeper and Stratton also looks good in a very small sample size. Finally, do not forget that Bumgarner really is the best pitcher in baseball (Kershaw is OK but Bum is the real thing, and he hits better than Kershaw).  A recent stat going around the league notes that Bum has the same number of home runs in the same number of at-bats this year as Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.  He should be the DH when the G-Men play interleague.  Remember that Babe Ruth started as a pitcher and won 94 games. MadBum currently has 92 career wins. Just saying.

The Upcoming Games

This slightly unusual 8 game series (sandwiched around two off-days at home, which is rare and probably very welcomed) includes two games with the AL East leading Red Sox. Question: will they activate Panda from the 60-day DL for the series?  I don’t think so but it would be fun to see him come off the DL (which he is on for being too fat) to take a bow at home.

Then a three game series at home against the Dodgers which, for the Dodgers anyway, is perform or die because they are getting buried in the NL West.  The G-Men have a serious opportunity to put a lot of daylight between themselves and Chavez Ravine.

Finally, the home stand closes off against the Brew Crew which is 14 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central.  There is nothing that the Brewers (which have some awesome bats and some not so awesome pitching) and their rabid west cast fans would like more than to take a couple ofgames from the G-men. We will see but those games will be a lot of fun regardless. I always save my bratwurst ration for the Brewers games, somehow they just taste better then.

May the force, and seven innings from the starters, be with you always.

That’s it!

Ciao, and GO GIANTS!

The Czar